USAT: Lions Wire audio clip

USAT: Lions Wire

Feb 16, 2022

Wide receiver is a major need for the Detroit Lions in the 2021 offseason. Just ask Lions’ WR coach Antwaan Randle El, who wants the team to draft two and sign another free agent to help boost the league’s most anemic wideout corps. - However, simply going out onto the free agent market and paying top dollar for a big-ticket wide receiver isn’t likely to work out. A recent study shows that signing expensive free agent WRs has been a consistent failing strategy for teams of all caliber. - Over the last four seasons of free agency, just two of the 32 premium free agents (total contract value of at least $8 million) at wide receiver have topped 1,000 receiving yards. Only four have caught at least 70 passes in the first season with the new team. - The name at the top is one Lions fans know all too well — Kenny Golladay. Detroit’s unheralded Kalif Raymond (48 receptions, 575 yards, 4 TDs) outproduced Golladay for 1.3 percent of the annual average compensation. - - In fact, Raymond posted more productivity in Detroit’s largely moribund passing offense than all but two of the 10 free agent wideouts who pulled at least $8 million in total contract value last offseason. One of those is the man whose role he replaced in Detroit, Marvin Jones, who was very good on a very bad Jacksonville team. - This isn’t advocating for Kalif Raymond, though the Lions would be wise to consider bringing back the diminutive speedster for the right price. It’s more a cautionary tale against relying too heavily on a high-priced free agent to provide bang for the receiving buck. - The originating post on Twitter from where the spreadsheet here is taken: - - U want a #1 WR? Well u arent finding one in FA. 32 WRs signed as UFA since 2018 for $8M or more in total contract value. 2 reached 1000+ receiving yards and 0 had >6 TDs. The avg season has been 41 rec, 503 yds, 3 TD. Its an absolute wasteland. Go cheap, trade or draft pic.twitter.com/OqN25G4vnN - — TA (@ClevTA) February 16, 2022 - - - Note that the average production from those 32 wideouts is very close to what the Lions got from Raymond. Again, this isn’t about pumping up Raymond; it’s warning against betting too heavily that the answer to the Lions’ passing game woes can be bought with a big-ticket free agent. The two guys who did top 1,000 receiving yards, John Brown and Robbie Anderson, haven’t come close to doing it since. The Bills even ate Brown’s contract and cut him prior to the 2021 season. - Many of the more prominent free agent WRs for this offseason already appear on the list: Allen Robinson (twice), Juju Smith-Schuster, Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, Will Fuller. A Lions swing-and-miss from last year, Tyrell Williams, also made the list from a different year. At least he only cost Detroit $4 million. - There are myriad factors why the coveted free agents didn’t work. From scheme change, to dropoff at quarterback, to being placed into a different receiving role or the ever-present injury threat, it’s a motley stew of a cautionary tale. - The “go big or go home” strategy with free agent wide receivers isn’t a smart one. Betting on the Lions to be the team to buck the trend and become one of the few success stories is a tough sell, too. - Big thanks to ClevTA for the data and research! - - - - - - - - - - - - Email - - - - - Sign up - - - - - - - - Like this article? - Sign up for the Lions Wire email newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning - - - - An error has occured - - - Please re-enter your email address. - - - - - - Thanks for signing up! - - - You'll now receive the top Lions Wire stories each day directly in your inbox.

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